An Elabe poll reveals that Édouard Philippe would be the only candidate capable of beating the National Rally in the second round of the 2027 presidential election, reigniting speculation on the French political landscape.Breaking News, Policy, Society, Édouard Philippe, elections, Elabe investigation, Jordan Bardella, Marine Le Pen, French politics, National gathering, presidential election, second tour, 2027 presidential poll, AFE PACKAGE, newsAn Elabe poll reveals that Édouard Philippe would be the only candidate capable of beating the National Rally in the second round of the 2027 presidential...
The publication of an Elabe poll for BFMTV and La Tribune Dimanche this Saturday March 28, 2026 caused an electric shock in the French political class. This survey, carried out among a representative sample, places the National Rally in the lead in the first round of the 2027 presidential election, regardless of its candidate, but reveals an unexpected flaw in its presumed domination.
According to the detailed results, former Prime Minister Édouard Philippe appears to be the only candidate from the central bloc capable of qualifying for the second round against the RN. The figures show that in a duel pitting Philippe against Jordan Bardella or Marine Le Pen, the former mayor of Le Havre would win by a significant margin, thus breaking the apparent invincibility of the far-right party.
This study takes place in a particularly tense political context, while traditional parties are struggling to reposition themselves after the latest electoral events. The prospect of a presidential election still distant but already on the radar of polling institutes underlines the chronic instability of the French political landscape and the permanent search for credible alternatives.
Reactions within the National Rally were mixed, oscillating between annoyance at these results and the desire to minimize them. Some party executives quickly recalled that almost three years still separate this investigation from the presidential election, a period during which many parameters could change radically.
For Édouard Philippe, these figures represent both an opportunity and a challenge. The former Prime Minister, who has not yet officially declared his intentions for 2027, sees his position strengthened within the moderate right, but will have to deal with the excessive expectations that such projections generate.
Other political groups, from the left to the different currents of the presidential majority, analyze this data with particular attention. Several observers note that this poll could accelerate the current recompositions and influence alliance strategies for the next intermediate elections.
The methodology of this survey, based on simulations of different scenarios, highlights the complexity of future electoral equations. Political analysts point out that the volatility of the French electorate makes any long-term projection particularly tricky, even if these trends offer valuable insights into the state of mind of citizens.
Beyond the figures, this publication rekindles the debate on the influence of polls in the construction of the political landscape. While the 2027 presidential election still seems far away, this data is already helping to outline the contours of the upcoming campaign and to define the balance of power between the different forces present.
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