The end of 2024 was marked by an unprecedented budgetary crisis in France. Following censorship by the government led by Michel Barnier, the country found itself without a budget for the year 2025. To ensure the continuity of public services, a special law was adopted urgently by Parliament and promulgated by President Emmanuel Macron on December 20, 2024. This temporary measure allows the State to collect taxes and borrow in order to finance its essential needs.
Promulgated from Mamoudzou in Mayotte, where the head of state was to observe the damage caused by Cyclone Chido, this law guarantees minimal functioning of the state. However, it remains limited and does not replace a real national budget. The resigning Minister of the Budget, Laurent Saint-Martin, recalled the urgency of straightening out the public accounts to restore economic stability.
The new Prime Minister, François Bayrou, appointed on December 13, has committed to presenting a final budget by mid-February 2025. However, he acknowledged the major political challenges hampering this process, notably tensions within of Parliament. The general rapporteur of the Finance Committee, Jean-François Husson, also stressed that this special law could only be a transitional solution.
Local communities are particularly worried. The pressure exerted by the State to make 5 billion euros in savings is seen as a threat to their own budgets. They have intensified their lobbying efforts to protect their financial resources and avoid drastic cuts.
On the business side, the absence of a clear budgetary framework leads to economic uncertainty. Although initially planned tax increases have been suspended, businesses remain cautious about possible fiscal instability. In addition, financial markets are closely monitoring the situation, fearing a further downgrade of the country's credit rating, as recently reported by Moody's.
The current situation also exposes the structural weaknesses of French fiscal governance. Experts estimate that the public deficit could exceed 6% of GDP in 2025 if corrective measures are not quickly adopted. This perspective jeopardizes economic recovery and accentuates social inequalities.
Political and social reactions to this crisis are divided. Some welcome the government's responsiveness to avoid total paralysis, while others denounce improvised management and a lack of long-term vision. This polarization reflects the state of political fragmentation which further complicates budget negotiations.
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For the moment, the special law remains in force and ensures state financing until the adoption of a complete budget. However, time is running out to reach a political consensus and avoid a new crisis which could further weaken the French economy.
This crisis highlights a crucial challenge: restoring the confidence of citizens and economic actors while redefining an effective and sustainable budgetary strategy for the country.